Asia stocks mixed on Obama remarks












BANGKOK (AP) — Asian stock markets remained in a holding pattern Thursday as investors assessed President Barack Obama‘s comments that reaching a budget deal to prevent the U.S. from a possible recession was “not that tough” and could even be done quickly.


Obama’s remarks follow days of contentious negotiations between the White House and Congress on a deal to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff” of automatic spending cuts and tax increases at the start of next year. Without a deal, the U.S. could fall back into recession and drag much of the world down with it.












Wall Street stocks ended higher Wednesday after Obama was quoted telling business leaders in Washington that, despite a deep divide on critical issues, political leaders “can probably solve this in about a week, it’s not that tough.”


Obama is demanding that Republicans agree to raise tax rates for the richest Americans as part of a deal to rein in future deficits. Republican leaders say they will agree to higher revenue, but they want to close loopholes or reduce tax breaks rather than raise rates.


Chris Weston of IG Markets in Melbourne said in a market commentary that “there are distant signs that both parties should come to at least a short-term agreement. Certainly the market is seeing it that way and giving the situation the benefit of the doubt.”


Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.8 percent, in part buoyed by a weaker yen, to 9,541.21. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3 percent to 1,952.66. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1 percent to 22,245.56. Benchmarks in Indonesia, New Zealand and the Philippines rose while Singapore, Australia and mainland China fell.


Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 15 cents to $ 87.73 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 62 cents to finish at $ 87.88 per barrel on the Nymex on Wednesday.


In currencies, the euro fell to $ 1.3056 from $ 1.3079 late Wednesday in New York. The dollar rose to 82.52 from 82.35 yen.


___


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Death toll from Philippine typhoon nears 300












NEW BATAAN, Philippines (AP) — Stunned parents searching for missing children examined a row of mud-stained bodies covered with banana leaves while survivors dried their soaked belongings on roadsides Wednesday, a day after a powerful typhoon killed nearly 300 people in the southern Philippines.


Officials fear more bodies may be found as rescuers reach hard-hit areas that were isolated by landslides, floods and downed communications.












At least 151 people died in the worst-hit province of Compostela Valley when Typhoon Bopha lashed the region Tuesday, including 78 villagers and soldiers who perished in a flash flood that swamped two emergency shelters and a military camp, provincial spokeswoman Fe Maestre said.


Disaster-response agencies reported 284 dead in the region and 14 fatalities elsewhere from the typhoon, one of the strongest to hit the country this year.


About 80 people survived the deluge in New Bataan with injuries, and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, who visited the town, said 319 others remained missing.


“These were whole families among the registered missing,” Roxas told the ABS-CBN TV network. “Entire families may have been washed away.”


The farming town of 45,000 people was a muddy wasteland of collapsed houses and coconut and banana trees felled by Bopha’s ferocious winds.


Bodies of victims were laid on the ground for viewing by people searching for missing relatives. Some were badly mangled after being dragged by raging flood waters over rocks and other debris. A man sprayed insecticide on the remains to keep away swarms of flies.


A father wept when he found the body of his child after lifting a plastic cover. A mother, meanwhile, went away in tears, unable to find her missing children. “I have three children,” she said repeatedly, flashing three fingers before a TV cameraman.


Two men carried the mud-caked body of an unidentified girl that was covered with coconut leaves on a makeshift stretcher made from a blanket and wooden poles.


Dionisia Requinto, 43, felt lucky to have survived with her husband and their eight children after swirling flood waters surrounded their home. She said they escaped and made their way up a hill to safety, bracing themselves against boulders and fallen trees as they climbed.


“The water rose so fast,” she told AP. “It was horrible. I thought it was going to be our end.”


In nearby Davao Oriental, the coastal province first struck by the typhoon as it blew from the Pacific Ocean, at least 115 people perished, mostly in three towns that were so battered that it was hard to find any buildings with roofs remaining, provincial officer Freddie Bendulo and other officials said.


“We had a problem where to take the evacuees. All the evacuation centers have lost their roofs,” Davao Oriental Gov. Corazon Malanyaon said.


The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies issued an urgent appeal for $ 4.8 million to help people directly affected by the typhoon.


The sun was shining brightly for most of the day Wednesday, prompting residents to lay their soaked clothes, books and other belongings out on roadsides to dry and revealing the extent of the damage to farmland. Thousands of banana trees in one Compostela Valley plantation were toppled by the wind, the young bananas still wrapped in blue plastic covers.


But as night fell, however, rain started pouring again over New Bataan, triggering panic among some residents who feared a repeat of the previous day’s flash floods. Some carried whatever belongings they could as they hurried to nearby towns or higher ground.


After slamming into Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley, Bopha roared quickly across the southern Mindanao and central regions, knocking out power in two entire provinces, triggering landslides and leaving houses and plantations damaged. More than 170,000 fled to evacuation centers.


As of Wednesday evening, the typhoon was over the South China Sea west of Palawan province. It was blowing northwestward and could be headed to Vietnam or southern China, according to government forecasters.


The deaths came despite efforts by President Benigno Aquino III’s government to force residents out of high-risk communities as the typhoon approached.


Some 20 typhoons and storms lash the northern and central Philippines each year, but they rarely hit the vast southern Mindanao region where sprawling export banana plantations have been planted over the decades because it seldom experiences strong winds that could blow down the trees.


A rare storm in the south last December killed more than 1,200 people and left many more homeless.


The United States extended its condolences and offered to help its Asian ally deal with the typhoon’s devastation. It praised government efforts to minimize the deaths and damage.


___


Associated Press writers Jim Gomez, Teresa Cerojano and Oliver Teves in Manila contributed to this report.


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In brewing rivalry, Instagram trims ties to Twitter












SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Facebook Inc’s recently acquired photo-sharing service Instagram removed a key element of its integration with Twitter, signaling a deepening rift between two of the Web’s dominant social media companies.


Instagram Chief Executive Kevin Systrom said Wednesday his company turned off support for Twitter “cards” in order to drive Twitter users to Instagram’s own website. Twitter “cards” are a feature that allows multimedia content like YouTube videos and Instagram photos to be embedded and viewed directly within a Twitter message.












The move marked the latest clash between Facebook and Twitter since April, when Facebook, the world’s no. 1 social network, outbid Twitter to nab fast-growing Instagram in a cash-and-stock deal valued at the time at $ 1 billion. The acquisition closed in September for roughly $ 715 million, reflecting Facebook’s recent stock drop.


The companies’ ties have been strained since. In July, Twitter blocked Instagram from using its data to help new Instagram users find friends.


Beginning earlier this week, Twitter’s users began to complain in public messages that Instagram photos did not seem to display properly on Twitter’s website.


Systrom confirmed Wednesday that his company had decided its users should view photos on Instagram’s own Web pages and took steps to change its policies.


“We believe the best experience is for us to link back to where the content lives,” Systrom said in a statement, citing recent improvements to Instagram’s website.


“A handful of months ago, we supported Twitter cards because we had a minimal Web presence,” Systrom said, noting that the company has since released new features that allow users to comment about and “like” photos directly on Instagram’s website.


The move escalates a rivalry in the fast-growing social networking sector, where the biggest players have sought to wall off access to content from rival services and to their ranks of users.


“They’re both competing for slices of the same pie, the pie being users’ attention,” said Ray Valdes, an analyst with research firm Gartner.


If Facebook decides to offer advertising on Instagram, it’s important that the users visit Instagram’s own website, said Valdes. “If the eyeballs are elsewhere, you have less to work with in terms of monetization,” he said.


Photos are among the most popular features on both Facebook and Twitter, and Instagram’s meteoric rise in recent years has further proved how picture-sharing has become a key front in the battle for social Internet supremacy.


Instagram, which has 100 million users, allows consumers to tweak the photos they take on their smartphones and share the images with friends, a feature that Twitter has reportedly also begun to develop. Twitter’s executive chairman, Jack Dorsey, was an early investor in Instagram and had hoped to acquire it before Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg made a successful bid.


When Zuckerberg announced the acquisition in an April blog post, he highlighted Instagram’s inter-connectivity with other social networks.


“We think the fact that Instagram is connected to other services beyond Facebook is an important part of the experience,” Zuckerberg wrote. “We plan on keeping features like the ability to post to other social networks.”


A Twitter spokesman declined comment Wednesday, but a status message on Twitter’s website confirmed that users are “experiencing issues,” such as “cropped images” when viewing Instagram photos on Twitter.


(Reporting By Alexei Oreskovic and Gerry Shih; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Leslie Adler)


Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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‘Dr. Phil”s stolen classic Chevy recovered












BURBANK, Calif. (AP) — Los Angeles police say they’ve recovered a stolen 1957 Chevrolet Bel Air Convertible that belongs to talk-show host Phil McGraw.


Detective Jess Corral said Tuesday that investigators recovered McGraw’s classic car, along with 13 others, after law enforcement began targeting auto theft rings.












McGraw is known as television’s “Dr. Phil. His car was stolen from the RODZ shop in Burbank in August, and was found with minor damage.


The car is worth at least $ 80,000.


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Disability expected to rise as more premature babies survive












LONDON (Reuters) – Little progress has been made in improving the long-term health of extremely premature babies, and with pre-term births on the rise across Europe, rates of serious disability are likely to increase, doctors said on Wednesday.


A decade of advances in medicine mean more babies born at between 22 and 26 weeks gestation manage to survive, but rates of severe health complications remain as high as they were in 1995, according to research by neonatal specialists in Britain.












The findings of two separate studies published in the British Medical Journal suggest the number of children and adults with disabilities caused by premature birth will rise in coming years.


Babies born before 27 weeks of gestation – 13 weeks before they would be considered full term – face a battle for survival. Many of those who do survive face problems such as lung conditions, learning difficulties and cerebral palsy.


Rates of premature birth are rising in many European countries and are particularly high in Britain and the United States.


“As the number of children that survive pre-term birth continues to rise, so will the number who experience disability throughout their lives,” said Neil Marlow, of University College London’s Institute for Women’s Health, who worked on both studies and presented the results at a briefing in London.


He said this was “likely to have an impact on the demand for health, education and social care services.”


The two studies, led by Marlow and Kate Costeloe of Queen Mary, University of London, compared a group of babies born in the UK between 22 and 26 weeks’ gestation in 2006 with those born between 22 and 25 weeks over a 10-month period in 1995.


The first one looked at the immediate survival rates and the health – until they went home from hospital – of extremely premature babies born in 2006 and compared them with 1995 rates.


Researchers found the number of babies born at 22 to 25 weeks and admitted to intensive care increased by 44 percent during this period. The number of babies who survived long enough to go home from hospital increased by 13 percent.


There was no significant increase in survival of babies born before 24 weeks – the current legal limit for abortion in Britain – and the number of babies who had major health complications was unchanged over the decade.


Costeloe said what while survival rates for babies born at less than 27 weeks gestation were moving in the “right direction”, there was still room for improvement.


“We can’t be complacent, because the fact of the matter is, that in 2006 if at this gestation you were alive at the end of the first week, you had no greater chance of going home (from hospital) than you would have done had you managed to survive the first week of life in 1995.”


The second study looked at the health of the 2006 babies when at three years old and compared this with 1995. It found that while 11 percent more babies survived to three without disabilities the proportion of survivors born between 22 and 25 weeks with severe disability was about the same – at 18 percent in 1995 and 19 percent in 2006.


The researchers also found a link between gestational age and the risk of disability, with babies born earlier more likely to have serious health complications at three years of age.


(Reporting by Kate Kelland, editing by Rosalind Russell)


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Obama firm on “fiscal cliff” amid Republican disarray












WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama held his ground on the “fiscal cliff” on Tuesday, insisting on higher tax rates for the wealthiest Americans, while Republicans showed increasing disarray over how far they should go to compromise with Obama‘s demands.


With less than a month left to confront the budget cuts and tax increases that will begin taking effect in January unless Congress acts, Obama dangled the possibility of lowering tax rates as part of a broad U.S. tax code revamp in 2013.












But he again insisted, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, that tax rates for the wealthiest 2 percent of taxpayers must rise in any deal by the end of the year to avert the assorted measures known as the fiscal cliff.


Obama, a Democrat, may face resistance from his own party if and when he’s forced to be specific about how he would cut the cost of entitlements, such as the Medicare health insurance program for seniors.


For the moment, however, the overall political picture Tuesday reflected a relatively solid front of Democrats versus an increasingly shaky group of Republicans.


Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, even avoided endorsing the negotiating position of his House of Representatives ally, Speaker John Boehner.


“I think it is important that the House Republican leadership has tried to move the process forward,” McConnell told reporters trying to get his views on a proposal Boehner and the House Republican leadership sent to Obama on Monday.


Outside the capital, concern mounted about how and when – not to mention if – the politicians might put their disagreements behind them and deal conclusively with an issue that economists say could trigger another recession.


Corporate chief executives were scheduled to meet with Obama later on Wednesday. The Business Roundtable, a lobbying group for corporations, has arranged the meetings. In addition to prompt action on the fiscal cliff, the group is seeking tax cuts for their companies.


Boeing Co. CEO Jim McNerney, who chairs the group, said its members want “a balanced solution to the nation’s fiscal cliff and long-term deficit and debt issues … including meaningful and comprehensive tax and entitlement reforms.”


The manufacturing sector contracted in November and posted its weakest performance in three years, a report showed on Monday. Companies taking part in the survey said uncertainty over the negotiations in Washington was a factor.


U.S. stocks slipped on Tuesday as investors fretted about Washington’s ability to avoid a year-end budget crisis.


REPUBLICAN DISARRAY


On Capitol Hill, conservative South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint attacked Boehner, a fellow Republican, over Monday’s fiscal cliff offer, which included $ 800 billion in revenue increases from overhauling the tax code, along with spending cuts and entitlement revisions, as part of a deficit reduction deal.


That amount, which Boehner informally accepted during previous debt-ceiling negotiations in 2011, was not enough to satisfy Obama. But it was too much for DeMint and other Republicans who have made opposition to tax increases of any kind a central part of their politics for many years.


Speaker Boehner‘s $ 800 billion tax hike will destroy American jobs and allow politicians in Washington to spend even more,” DeMint said in a statement on Tuesday.


Signaling some worry about fragmented sentiment in the House, Republican leaders took the unusual step of removing two hard-line Tea Party conservatives, Tim Huelskamp of Kansas and Justin Amash of Michigan, from the House Budget Committee, where elements of a fiscal cliff deal are likely to be considered.


A few House Republicans, such as Mike Simpson of Idaho and Steve King of Iowa, have said tax increases on the wealthiest may be tolerable under certain conditions.


OBAMA PRESSES ADVANTAGE


The president pressed his agenda on Tuesday, reiterating his openness to unspecified reforms in entitlement programs.


He repeated that as part of any deal, low tax rates on 98 percent of taxpayers should be extended, but that taxes on the top 2 percent should rise. “Let’s let those go up,” Obama said, referring to a “down payment” for future negotiations.


“And then let’s set up a process with a time certain, at the end of 2013 or the fall of 2013, where we work on tax reform, we look at what loopholes and deductions both Democrats and Republicans are willing to close, and it’s possible that we may be able to lower rates by broadening the base at that point.”


Fueling concerns among some Republicans about resisting compromise are surveys, like one released by the Pew Research Center on Tuesday, which showed that about 53 percent of those polled said they would hold Republicans more responsible than Democrats for going over the cliff; 27 percent said they would hold Obama responsible.


(Additional reporting by Kim Dixon, Rachelle Younglai, Fred Barbash; Writing by Kevin Drawbaugh; Editing by Fred Barbash and Eric Beech)


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WestJet embraces tech to woo business travelers












TORONTO (Reuters) – WestJet Airlines Ltd will use technological innovation, including a new Internet ticket booking system, to help it transform from a no-frills carrier to a lower-cost full-service airline courting lucrative corporate travelers, its chief executive said on Monday.


Canada’s second-biggest airline plans to launch a series of technology systems, most notably the new online booking engine, which will sell three tiers of tickets, in the next two months.












“Companies evolve or they die,” Chief Executive Gregg Saretsky told Reuters in a phone interview from the company’s Calgary head office.


“We’re 16 and going on 17 years old and we can’t stay just as we were 17 years ago. The world has changed. And we are changing to be more relevant for a broader segment of guests.”


The new Internet booking system, which WestJet hopes to launch in late January, will sell economy, mid-tier and premium tickets. That is a major shift from its current system, which sells only the lowest-priced ticket available.


Economy tickets under the new system will continue to sell the lowest available fare, but the cancellation fee for them will jump to C$ 75 ($ 75.48) from C$ 50. Mid-tier tickets will have a C$ 50 cancellation fee.


Premium tickets, unavailable until late March when WestJet finishes reconfiguring its 100 Boeing 737 planes to allow more leg room, will include priority screening and boarding, free cancellations and flexibility on ticket changes.


Pricing for those tickets, which may include free meals and drinks and an extra baggage allowance, has not yet been determined. Fares will be well below half the price for business class at WestJet’s bigger competitor, Air Canada, Saretsky said.


“It’s time for us to be more serious with respect to going after business travelers because frankly, they’re the ones who are booking last-minute and are happy to pay for the conveniences,” Saretsky said.


WestJet will launch its premium economy service with 24 seats per plane, but will consider expansion if it proves “wildly successful,” he added.


POISED FOR CHANGE


WestJet, which has spent about C$ 40 million over the past two years on technology projects, is poised for major changes in 2013 as it readies to launch a new regional airline, Encore.


Saretsky hopes that WestJet’s switch in coming weeks to a new Internet phone system will allow ticket reservation agents to work from home and help make room for Encore staff.


Some 750 reservation agents work at WestJet’s Calgary offices, which house about 2,400 staff. Space will be needed for Encore employees over the next 18 months while their office, hangars and maintenance stores are constructed at the WestJet campus.


Encore will be launch in the second half of 2013, “probably closer to July than December,” Saretsky said, with seven Bombardier Q400 planes.


While WestJet won’t announce Encore’s schedule until Jan 21, the carrier will initially serve only “a handful” of new cities, with ticket prices up to 50 percent below Air Canada’s, he added.


Over the next two months, WestJet will also roll out a guest notification system that alerts travelers via email about their flights, allowing them to check in remotely.


Such self-service technology will be critical as WestJet faces increasing labor costs, Saretsky said.


Wage and benefit costs, which represent about a third of operating costs, have climbed 50 percent since WestJet was founded in 1996.


“You can see that creates a little bit of drag on earnings,” Saretsky said. “We’ve got to find ways of reducing our component costs.”


If WestJet can increase self service options for travelers, that could limit the need for new employees, Saretsky said. Management also wants to improve attendance management, so that fewer employees book off sick around long weekends, and more quickly clean and process planes between flights, he said.


(Reporting By Susan Taylor; Editing by Peter Galloway)


(This story was corrected to show that WestJet is replacing its Internet booking engine, not entire reservation system, in the first and second paragraphs)


Canada News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Toshiba’s 10-inch Excite 10 SE tablet sells for $349.99, comes with Jelly Bean












While every other company is busy chasing the 7-inch tablet market, Toshiba (TOSBF) is keeping its eye on people interested in 10-inch tablets. Its new Excite 10 SE Android tablet is fairly similar to its Excite 10 LE, sporting a 10.1-inch 1280 x 800 resolution display, NVIDIA Tegra 3 quad-core processor, 16GB of internal storage, 3-megapixel rear camera, HD front camera, microSD card slot and Android 4.1 Jelly Bean. It doesn’t have the iPad’s eye-popping Retina display or the Samsung (005930) Nexus 10′s crisp 2,560 x 1,600 resolution with 300 pixels per inch, but it’s more than adequate for most basic tablet tasks. And at $ 349.99, it’s not a bad deal for a 10-inch tablet. The Excite 10 SE goes on sale December 6th and will be available from ToshibaDirect.com and select retail stores. Toshiba’s press release follows below.



Toshiba expands excite family of tablets with new 10-inch model












New Excite 10 SE Tablet Powered by Android 4.1 Starting at $ 349.99 MSRP


IRVINE, Calif. — Dec. 4, 2012 — Toshiba’s Digital Products Division (DPD), a division of Toshiba America Information Systems, Inc., today announced the availability of the Excite™ 10 SE tablet, a multimedia-rich tablet with a 10.1-inch touchscreen, powered by Android™ 4.1, Jelly Bean. The Excite 10 SE offers an affordable option for people looking for a powerful and versatile tablet for the home, starting at only $ 349.99 MSRP[i].


“Our Excite family of tablets continues to grow with options to suit a wide range of consumer needs, from portability and gaming to versatility and power,” said Carl Pinto, vice president of marketing of Toshiba America Information Systems, Inc., Digital Products Division. “We designed the Excite 10 SE to be a full featured tablet that offers a pure Android, Jelly Bean experience, while maintaining an attractive price point.”


The Excite 10 SE features Android 4.1, Jelly Bean, which improves on the simplicity and usability of Android 4.0. Moving between customizable home screens and switching between apps is effortless, while the Chrome™ browser and new Google Now intelligent personal assistant and Voice Search apps makes surfing the web fast and fluid.


Slim and light at only 0.4 inches thick and weighing 22.6 ounces[ii], the Excite 10 SE is encased with a textured Fusion Lattice finish, making it comfortable to hold and easy to carry. The tablet offers a vibrant 10.1-inch diagonal AutoBrite™ HD touchscreen display[iii] plus the NVIDIA® Tegra® 3 Super 4-PLUS-1™ quad-core processor[iv] that delivers smooth web browsing and outstanding performance for games, HD movies and more.


Stereo speakers with SRS® Premium Voice Pro create an optimized audio experience for music, video and games, while providing greater clarity for video chatting via the tablet’s HD front-facing camera. The Excite 10 SE also includes a 3 megapixel rear-facing camera with auto-focus and digital zoom for capturing HD video and photos. Featuring a wide range of connectivity, the tablet includes 802.11 b/g/n Wi-Fi®, Bluetooth® 3.0, as well as Micro SD and Micro USB ports for expandability. The tablet also charges conveniently via the Micro USB port.


Availability


The Excite 10 SE will be available starting at $ 349.99 MSRP for the 16GB model at select retailers and direct from Toshiba at ToshibaDirect.com on December 6, 2012.



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LeBron James wins Sports Illustrated annual award












(Reuters) – LeBron James of the Miami Heat was named as Sports Illustrated’s Sportsman of the Year for 2012, the U.S. magazine announced on Monday.


In an outstanding year, the 27-year-old James won his first NBA championship, his third league Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, was named MVP of the NBA finals and a won gold medal with the United States at the London Olympics.












He became just the sixth basketballer to win the award, which began in 1954. The most recent was his team-mate Dwyane Wade in 2006.


Two years ago, James became a hate figure for many American sports fans after he announced his decision to sign for Miami live on television after his contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers had expired.


He was booed at courts across the NBA and received intense criticism for his performance as Miami lost the 2011 NBA finals to the Dallas Mavericks.


“Did I think an award like this was possible two years ago? ‘No, I did not,” James said in an interview with the magazine.


“I thought I would be helping a lot of kids and raise $ 3 million by going on TV and saying, ‘Hey, I want to play for the Miami Heat.’ But it affected far more people than I imagined.


“I know it wasn’t on the level of an injury or an addiction, but it was something I had to recover from. I had to become a better person, a better player, a better father, a better friend, a better mentor and a better leader. I’ve changed, and I think people have started to understand who I really am.”


Previous winners of the award include swimmer Michael Phelps (2008), cyclist Lance Armstrong (2002) and golfer Tiger Woods (2000) while the first award was given to British athlete Roger Bannister in 1954 after he became the first person to run a mile in under four minutes.


(Reporting By Simon Evans; Editing by Julian Linden)


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Researchers Are Closing In On a Method to Predict Flu Outbreaks












In the near future, you may be able to hear a routine “flu forecast” on the evening news just as weather forecasts are issued each day. A team of scientists working on a flu forecast model recently announced they’re a step closer to producing a model that can reliably warn consumers of flu trends even seven weeks in advance.


Having a method to predict flu outbreaks could help curb the spread of the virus during peak times of the year and could potentially save many lives during a severe pandemic.












“I can envision this being part of the local weather forecast in the same way you have pollen counts and pollution levels,” lead author Jeffrey Shaman, an assistant professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia’s Mailman School of Public Health, told Take Part.


MORE: Flu Vaccines in Grade Schools Significantly Curb Illness


The paper, which appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the latest in a series of work by Shaman and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The research is unusual because it applies weather forecasting models to an infectious disease.


Flu is particularly well-suited to this kind of forecasting. There are few other illnesses as seasonal as flu. In the United States, it’s basically a wintertime ailment. However, the authors of the paper note, the flu peak each year can vary dramatically. In some  years, flu cases peak before the holidays and in other years, flu peaks as late as April.


In a 2009 paper, Shaman showed how important environmental factors are on flu transmission and persistence. Flu epidemics tend to follow very dry weather. But in the new study, Shaman and co-author Alicia Karspeck, of NCAR, borrowed a mathematical model used in weather forecasting and combined it with real-time information gathered from Google Flu Trends. Google Flu Trends shows the number of flu-related search queries in a given region and estimates outbreaks based on that demand for flu information.


MORE: The Most Vulnerable Pay a High Price for Flu Infection


In the study, the researchers used the model to look, retrospectively, at flu during the winters of 2003-04 and 2008-09 in New York City. The model accurately predicted the peak timing of the outbreak more than seven weeks in advance. While a weather forecast predicting conditions seven weeks out is not likely to be very accurate, the flu forecast model produced a surprising level of accuracy.


“One of the things about a weather forecast is it degrades the farther out you go,” Shaman says. “Weather forecasts degrade at a certain rate because of the complexity of weather. Flu trends are simpler.”


The researchers’ next step is to create models for various regions of the country because flu cases peak at different times around the country. But Shaman says he thinks a usable flu forecasting system could be available to public health officials in about a year or two.


Eventually, he says, flu forecasts could be made available to the public.


MORE: Flu Shot Myths Debunked: Hey Holdouts, Care to Reconsider?


“We can generate forecasts very similar to what you get in weather,” he says “There is a 40 to 60 percent chance that flu will peak in six weeks — that would be a strong forecast. There is a 10 percent chance that flu will peak in five weeks would be a weak forecast.”


Consumers love to hate weather forecasts, and it might take some time for people to buy into a flu forecast. But Shaman says he thinks consumers will pay attention. Flu infects millions of Americans each year and, on average, causes about 35,000 deaths each year. The illness accounts for many lost school days and time away from work. A flu forecast could prompt people to be more diligent about prevention measures, such as frequent hand-washing, staying home from work when they feel symptoms coming on and even wearing masks to avoid exposure, the authors note.


“If we show the forecasts are reliable and people get a sense that they are, I think they’ll respond to the information sensibly,” he says. “The forecasts even have enough lead time that it can be an effective reminder for people who haven’t been vaccinated to go get the vaccine.”


Public health officials and medical professionals would benefit from a flu forecast by stocking up on anti-viral medication and scheduling extra personnel in hospitals and clinics to care for more patients, he says. In a severe pandemic, city officials could use the information to close schools to thwart transmission.


Question: Do you think it would be helpful to have weekly “flu forecasts” during the winter months? Tell us what you think in the comments.



Shari Roan is an award-winning health writer based in Southern California. She is the author of three books on health and science subjects.


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